Louisiana has definitely started down the hill of the latest outbreak. We were hit early and hard, locked down in late March and April, and then started opening up in the middle of May. In June the number of positive tests began climbing and in the middle of June, the number of hospitalizations stopped falling and started climbing. Hospitalizations climbed from June 13 to July 27. Since then, the trend has been downward. The question is how low can it go? The state closed bars again July 11, and ordered a mask mandate the same day. Daily positives started falling about two weeks later, as did the positivity rate. At a glance it looks like the number of daily tests peaked the week ending August 1.
So who is getting it? Who is dying? I really hate to just divide the number of deaths by the number of cases to get a death count, because so much has changed in this pandemic since the beginning. At first, few people were tested. Those who were tested were generally those for whom everything else had been ruled out. Now they encourage people who have been exposed to be tested, even if they don't have symptoms. At first, it appeared to be a disease that both sickened and killed far more old people than young. Now it is clear that the young can get it, but it is still the old that it is killing. As I've said from the beginning, the numbers in which I have the most faith are the hospitalization and death numbers. I don't think those definitions have changed that much since the start of the pandemic, though I have heard that patients, on average, are spending less time in the hospital than they were in March and April. So it is possible that lower numbers of hospitalized patients are not because less people are getting ill, but rather, because those who are hospitalized are released sooner.
If we look at the whole pandemic, they have been counting since March 8, or for 159 days, and the total number of diagnosed cases is 136,737 so overall the average diagnosed cases per day is 859. Total deaths are 4307, or an average of 27 per day.
However, there have been 20,457 positive tests in August, an average of 1,461 per day and 472 deaths, an average of 34 per day. There have been 14 days in August, which is 8.8% of the days in the pandemic
As I've been writing this series, I've considered the various population groups.
Children
Children make up about 25% of the population but the first time I wrote a post like this, only 1.3% of those who have tested positive. They made up less than 1% of the dead. Of those 18 and under who tested positive, 0.2% died.
From March through the middle of August, children make up 8.68% of those who have tested positive. They make up 0.09% of the dead. Of those diagnosed, 0.03% have died.
However, just looking at August, 2178 children tested positive. That's 10.6% those diagnosed. No children have died. While August is 8.8% of the days in the pandemic, 18.3 % of children who have tested positive did so in August.
20's
In my original numbers, people age 20-29 made up 14% of the population but only 11.6% of those who tested positive. Only 0.3% of the dead were in their 20's. Of those who tested positive, 0.2% died.
Today: 21.9% of those who have tested positive are in their 20's. 0.46% of the dead are in their 20's and of those who tested positive, 0.06% have died.
In August: 4363 positive tests, which is 21.37% of those who tested positive There were five deaths which is 1.05% of the dead. While August is 8.8% of the pandemic, 14.56% of positive tests to those in their 20's happened in August. 25% of their deaths were in August.
30's
In my original numbers, 13.3% of the population was in their 30's, but they comprised 15.8% of those who have tested positive. Only 1.8% of the dead were in their 30's. Of those who tested positive, 0.7% died.
Today: 16.48% of positive cases were people in their 30's. 1.74% of the dead are in their 30's. Of those who tested positive, 0.33% have died.
In August, 16.64% of those who tested positive are in their 30's. 1.05% of the dead are. While August is 8.8% of the pandemic, 15.11% of positive tests to those in their 30's happened in August. 6.6% of the deaths were in August.
40's
Originally: Though people in their 40's make up 12.38% of the population, they comprise 17% of those who tested positive and 3.8 % of the dead. Of 40-somethings who tested positive, 1.5% died.
Today: 15.01% of positive cases are people in their 40's. They are 3.4% of the dead. Of those diagnosed, 0.73% have died.
In August: 14.62% of positive cases are people in their 40's. They are 3.17% of the dead. While August is 8.8% of the pandemic, of those in their 40's who tested positive, 14.56% did so in August, and of those who died, 9.4% died in August.
50's
Then: Those in their 50's are 13.1% of population but 19% of those who tested positive. They make up 8.6% of the dead and of those who tested positive, 3% died.
Today: Those in their 50's are 14.6% of the diagnosed. They make up 8.5% of the dead, and of the diagnosed, 1.85% have died.
In August 2968 new diagnoses. 35 deaths. 13.58% of the diagnosed were in their 50's, and 10.38% of the dead. While August is 8.8% of the pandemic, of those in their 50's who have tested positive, 14.8% were diagnosed in August. Of those who died, 9.45% died in August.
60's
Then: While those age 60-69 make up 11.3% of population they make up 16.6 % of those who tested positive and 18.2% of the dead. Of those who tested positive, 7.4% died.
Today: Those in their 60's are 11.43% of the diagnosed. They are 17.83% of the dead, and of those diagnosed, 4.9% have died.
In August. 2314 cases, 87 deaths. Those in their 60's were 11.31% of the diagnosed, and 18.4% of the dead. 14.79% of positive tests to those in their 60's were done in August. While August is 8.8% of the pandemic, 11.3% of the deaths in this age group were in August.
The Elderly
Then: Those aged 70+ are 11% of the population but 25% of those who tested positive. and 68 % of the dead have been elderly and of those in this age group who tested positive, 25% died.
Today: The elderly are 11.72% of those who tested positive and 67.79 % of the dead. Of the elderly who tested positive, 18.2% have died.
In August 2229 positive, 325 deaths. The elderly are 10.89 % of those diagnosed, and 68.85 % of the dead. While August is 8.8% of the pandemic, 13.9% of the positive tests were from August. 11.13% of the elderly who died did so in August.
A Few More Figures
My understanding is that it takes Covid-19 about a month to kill someone, give or take. Obviously this is not an exact figure and obviously there is a lot of variation. However, for what it is worth
April Cases Diagnosed 22,764
May Deaths 824 or 3.61% of April's cases
May Cases Diagnosed 9597
June Deaths 427 or 4.4% of May's cases
June Cases Diagnosed 18,853
July Deaths: 722 or 3.82% of June's cases
July 1-14 Cases Diagnosed 23947
August 1-4 Deaths 472 or 1.97% of early July's cases
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