My Review: What the Heart Wants

What the Heart Wants

About the Book:

“Fly free.”

For ten years those words, written on pink parchment paper in her mother’s beautiful handwriting, have been Suda Kaye Ross’s guiding star. Every year on her birthday, Suda Kaye opens another of the letters her mother penned before she passed, heeding the advice inside as she fills her life with experiences. From Italy to Australia, from Rio to Russia, she’s slaked her wanderlust. And then, on her twenty-eighth birthday, she opens the letter that sends her home.

Returning to Colorado means confronting everything—and everyone—she left behind, including her cherished sister, Evie, and her first love, Camden Bryant. Suda Kaye and Cam spent four years and one unforgettable night together. Given the way she ran out on him, it’s no surprise that he’s wary, resentful…and engaged to someone else. Evie, hardworking and überresponsible, just wants her sister to put down roots at last.

For Evie’s sake, and her own, Suda Kaye is trying to build a new life, all the while wondering whether it’s too late to come back home—or if the most important part of her never really left.

My Comments:

Once upon a time it was my dream to "fly free", to go from place to place leaving no roots behind, to see the world and experience adventure.  I went off to college rather than staying within a couple of hours of home  After college I moved from Mississippi where my family lived to New Orleans--not a huge distance, but definitely a new existence.  I saw it as a temporary step--someplace I'd get a couple of years of teaching experience before landing a job in an overseas school.  Well, turns out that teaching was not my vocation, so I headed to Atlanta to go back to school.  After three months there, I chose to return to New Orleans.  I was tired of starting over.  Then I married a native New Orleanian and I knew that meant I wasn't going anywhere, except on vacation.  

Suda Kaye had itchy feet, and encouraged by the letters written by her mother during her mother's final illness, Suda Kaye has been around the world, and has been with a variety of men, none of whom could hold a candle to her first love.  Her mom's most recent note, as stated above, sent her home, home to where those who had loved her before still love  her but were hurt by her long absence.  

With well-drawn characters, Audrey Carlan shows that you can go home again.  She also shows how living your dream isn't necessarily the best idea.  While you could say that it is a good thing Suda Kaye's mother lived her dream while she was young, she did so at the expense of two little girls who needed her to be there, and I have to wonder whether, while laying on her premature deathbed that mother felt her life was well-lived.  

I'd like to thank the publisher for making a review copy available via NetGalley.  Grade: B+

Another Covid Update

Well, my stats indicate that these are not popular posts.  Oh well, I'm writing them for me, not you--but I do hope I'm not the only stat geek out there.

School was supposed to start here August 6 or thereabout.  My daughter has check-in day still set for then.  She's in Catholic school and the plan now is for in-person instruction.  They are cutting the day from 6 periods to four and are limiting movement and interaction at lunch.  Not sure what they will do with assemblies and Masses--I know one school was talking about live-streaming them.  Still August 6 is two weeks away, and who knows what the stats will look like then.  The public schools have already pushed the start of school back a week and they are offering a choice of virtual learning or in-person.  Basically the virtual group is signing up for 100% home instruction for at least nine weeks.  The in-person groups will get a combination of in-home and at-school, with the ratio depending on the infection numbers.  I suspect if the numbers don't calm down before August 6, my daughter's school will go virtual.  I just don't think that liability-wise they can do anything else.

The Curve Is Up, Not Flat

Today is July 12.  It is a week after the Fourth of July Weekend.  It is about seven weeks since Louisiana entered phase II on June 1. About two weeks after we entered Phase 2, the number of diagnosed cases started rising.   Our hospitalization numbers hit a low of 542 on June 13.  Today they are back up to 1182, which is where they were on May 14.

In the last week, there have been 12,896 cases diagnosed.  128 people have died.  Overall, Louisiana has had 78,122 cases and 3308 deaths, for an overall death rate of 4.2%.  However, a local medical center did a study and concluded that about 7.8% of the population of my parish has been infected with the virus and that it has a fatality rate of about 1.4%. 

The statistics on who is testing positive have changed a lot in the last month.  Originally the numbers skewed old; now they are skewing young.  The numbers below are interesting

The first time I looked at the numbers I found:

Children make up 25% of the population but only 1.3% of those who have tested positive. They make up less than 1% of the dead. Of those 18 and under who tested positive, 0.2% died.

The comparable numbers today:  Children make up 6.6% of those who have tested positive.  They make up 0.09% of the dead.  Of those diagnosed, 0.05% have died.

This week only:  Children are 10.92% of those diagnosed, and 0% of those who died. 

Then:  People age  20-29 make up 14% of the population but only 11.6% of those who have tested positive.  Only 0.3% of the dead were in their 20's.  Of those who tested positive, 0.2% died.

Today:  21.8% of those who have tested positive are in their 20's.  0.33% of the dead are in their 20's and of those who tested positive, 0.06% have died.

This week only:  27.83% of those who tested positive are in their 20's. 0% of the dead are.

Then:  13.3% of the population is in their 30's, but they comprise 15.8% of those who have tested positive.  Only 1.8% of the dead were in their 30's.  Of those who tested positive,  0.7% died.

Today: 16.42% of positive cases were people in their 30's.  1.78% of the dead are in their 30's.  Of those who tested positive, 0.45% have died. 

17.33% of those who tested positive are in their 30's.  2.3% of the dead are.

Then:  Though people in their 40's make up  12.38% of the population, they comprise 17% of those who tested positive and 3.8 % of the dead. Of 40-somethings who tested positive, 1.5% died.

Today:  15.29% of positive cases are people in their 40's.  They are 3.56% of the dead.  Of those diagnosed,   .98% have died.

This week:  14.57% of positive cases are people in their 40's.  They are 5.51% of the dead.  

Then:  Those in their 50's are 13.1% of population but 19% of those who tested positive.  They make  up 8.6% of the dead and of those who tested positive, 3% died.

Today:  Those in their 50's are 14.96% of the diagnosed.  They make up 8.76% of the dead, and of the diagnosed, 2.49% have died. 

This week:  12.96% of the diagnosed were in their 50's, and 13.38% of the dead. 

Then:  While those age 60-69 make up  11.3% of population they make up 16.6 % of those who tested positive and  18.2% of the dead.  Of those who tested positive, 7.4% died.

Today:  Those in their 60's are 11.2% of the diagnosed. They are 17.68% of the dead, and of those diagnosed, 6.33 % have died. 

This week only:  Those in their 60's were 8.85% of the diagnosed, and 16.53% of the dead.  

Those aged 70+  are 11% of the population but  25% of those who tested positive. and 68 % of the dead have been elderly and of those in this age group who tested positive, 25% died.

Today:  The elderly are 12.84% of those who tested positive and 67.77 % of the dead.  Of the elderly who tested positive, 22.33% have died.  

This week only:  The elderly are 8.29% of those diagnosed, and 62.2% of the dead. 

What Does the Difference in the Covid-19 Stats Mean?

For the record, I am not a statistician.  I am not a medical professional.  To say that my science background is limited would be an understatement.  I'm doing basic math; whether the suppositions behind that math have any merit is for you to decide. 

I've been tracking the numbers on Covid-19 via NOLA.com, and then I've been crunching the numbers to give them more perspective.  I started doing this in May, and without far more work than I'm willing to do (and maybe even if I tried) I can't go back and find some of the numbers before then.  I've recently started saving daily charts and numbers so maybe I can dig up more information in the future, but I digress.

In the middle of June I started noticing that the proportion of cases in each age group were changing.  You can read my other posts to follow them, but for context, here are the cumulative numbers for June 7:

Kids now make up 3% of the diagnosed cases and 0.07% of the deaths.  Of the diagnosed kids, 0.15% have died.

14.5% of diagnosed cases are in 20-somethings, but only 0.35%  of the deaths.  Of those diagnosed, 0.16% have died.

16.07% of diagnosed cases have been to those in their 30's.  1.73% of the dead were in their 30's and of those who tested positive, 0.71% have died.

16.48% of people testing positive were in their 40's, but only 3.68% of the dead. Of those who tested positive, 1.47%  have died.

17.6% of positive tests were to those in their 50's; but 8.74% of  the deaths. 3.08% of  the diagnosed have died.

14.85% of cases were people in their 60's, and 18.08% of the dead.  8.03% of those who tested positive died.

17.08 % of positive tests were to the elderly, and they comprise 67.39% of the dead. 26.03% of those who tested positive have died.

Compare those numbers to the numbers for today only.  Today we had 1936 new cases and 23 deaths, distributed as follows:

Under 18:  157 cases or 8.1% of cases.  No deaths. 

20's:  531 cases or 27.4% of cases.  No deaths. 

30's:  300 cases or 15.49% of cases.  1 death, or 4.34% of deaths

40's:  264 cases or 13.63% of cases.  1 death or 4.43% of deaths

50's:  283 cases or 14.61% of cases.  5 deaths, or 21.73% of deaths

60's:  140 cases or 7.23% of cases.  5 deaths or 21.73% of deaths. 

70's:  261 cases or 13.48% of cases. 11 deaths or 47.82% of deaths.

I don't know enough about statistics to know if the different proportions of the dead between today and the whole time through June 7 is significant.  I realize that one day can be an outlier. 

Let's take a look at the total numbers since this started, as of today.  If nothing had changed, these numbers should be close to what is above:

Under 18:  4095 cases or 5.99% of positive tests.  3 deaths or 0.09% of deaths.  Of those diagnosed, 0.07% died. 

20's:  14383 cases or 21.06% of positive tests.  11 deaths or 0.34% of deaths.  Of those diagnosed, 0.07% died. 

30's 11,098 cases or 16.25% of positive tests.  57 deaths or 1.77% of deaths.  Of those diagnosed, 0.51% died. 

40's:  10,490 cases or 15.36% of positive tests.  111 deaths or 3.45% of deaths.  Of those diagnosed, 1.05% died. 

50's:  10,417 cases or 15.26% of positive tests.  280 deaths or 8.72% of deaths. Of those diagnosed, 2.69% died. 

60's:  8331 cases or 12.20% of positive tests.  571 deaths or 17.78% of deaths.  Of those diagnosed, 6.85% have died.

70's and older:  9295 cases or 13.62% of positive tests.  2178 deaths or 67.82% of deaths. Of those diagnosed, 23.43% have died.

When I looked at these numbers on June 28, I remarked that I was surprised that the last number on each row, the percent of the diagnosed who die, had not really moved  in the six weeks I had been tracking the numbers.  Well, it has started to move.  If you compare The June 7 numbers to the cumulative numbers I computed today, you can see that a lower percent of people in each age group who are diagnosed are dying.  I don't know to what extent this is attributable to better treatment and to what extent it is attributable to people who are less sick (or maybe not even sick at all) being tested and found positive, as compared to those in March and April.  

We have gone, in the space of a month, from a disease that mostly attacked old people to one that is getting the young.  As of June 7, 17.5% of the diagnosed people were under 30.  Today 35.5% of those added were under 30, and the cumulative total is now 27% under 30.  As of June 7, 17.08% of the cases were in the elderly.  Today only 13.48% of positives were elderly and cumulatively, only 13.62%. The age group with the big difference is the 50's. On June 7, they were 17.6% of positives, today 14.6 and cumulatively, they are down to 15.26%.  

Our hospitalization numbers are now back where they were on May 18.  There was about a week between peak hospitalization in April and peak death in April. It will be interesting to see if the number of deaths starts increasing again or if it stays low.  Also we have been under a mask edict since July 1.  It seems that if masks are effective we should start seeing a downward trend in diagnoses starting about now.  On the other hand, it is possible that masks make people feel safer such that they take bigger risks than they had been taking.  Who knows?