The Curve Is Up, Not Flat

Today is July 12.  It is a week after the Fourth of July Weekend.  It is about seven weeks since Louisiana entered phase II on June 1. About two weeks after we entered Phase 2, the number of diagnosed cases started rising.   Our hospitalization numbers hit a low of 542 on June 13.  Today they are back up to 1182, which is where they were on May 14.

In the last week, there have been 12,896 cases diagnosed.  128 people have died.  Overall, Louisiana has had 78,122 cases and 3308 deaths, for an overall death rate of 4.2%.  However, a local medical center did a study and concluded that about 7.8% of the population of my parish has been infected with the virus and that it has a fatality rate of about 1.4%. 

The statistics on who is testing positive have changed a lot in the last month.  Originally the numbers skewed old; now they are skewing young.  The numbers below are interesting

The first time I looked at the numbers I found:

Children make up 25% of the population but only 1.3% of those who have tested positive. They make up less than 1% of the dead. Of those 18 and under who tested positive, 0.2% died.

The comparable numbers today:  Children make up 6.6% of those who have tested positive.  They make up 0.09% of the dead.  Of those diagnosed, 0.05% have died.

This week only:  Children are 10.92% of those diagnosed, and 0% of those who died. 

Then:  People age  20-29 make up 14% of the population but only 11.6% of those who have tested positive.  Only 0.3% of the dead were in their 20's.  Of those who tested positive, 0.2% died.

Today:  21.8% of those who have tested positive are in their 20's.  0.33% of the dead are in their 20's and of those who tested positive, 0.06% have died.

This week only:  27.83% of those who tested positive are in their 20's. 0% of the dead are.

Then:  13.3% of the population is in their 30's, but they comprise 15.8% of those who have tested positive.  Only 1.8% of the dead were in their 30's.  Of those who tested positive,  0.7% died.

Today: 16.42% of positive cases were people in their 30's.  1.78% of the dead are in their 30's.  Of those who tested positive, 0.45% have died. 

17.33% of those who tested positive are in their 30's.  2.3% of the dead are.

Then:  Though people in their 40's make up  12.38% of the population, they comprise 17% of those who tested positive and 3.8 % of the dead. Of 40-somethings who tested positive, 1.5% died.

Today:  15.29% of positive cases are people in their 40's.  They are 3.56% of the dead.  Of those diagnosed,   .98% have died.

This week:  14.57% of positive cases are people in their 40's.  They are 5.51% of the dead.  

Then:  Those in their 50's are 13.1% of population but 19% of those who tested positive.  They make  up 8.6% of the dead and of those who tested positive, 3% died.

Today:  Those in their 50's are 14.96% of the diagnosed.  They make up 8.76% of the dead, and of the diagnosed, 2.49% have died. 

This week:  12.96% of the diagnosed were in their 50's, and 13.38% of the dead. 

Then:  While those age 60-69 make up  11.3% of population they make up 16.6 % of those who tested positive and  18.2% of the dead.  Of those who tested positive, 7.4% died.

Today:  Those in their 60's are 11.2% of the diagnosed. They are 17.68% of the dead, and of those diagnosed, 6.33 % have died. 

This week only:  Those in their 60's were 8.85% of the diagnosed, and 16.53% of the dead.  

Those aged 70+  are 11% of the population but  25% of those who tested positive. and 68 % of the dead have been elderly and of those in this age group who tested positive, 25% died.

Today:  The elderly are 12.84% of those who tested positive and 67.77 % of the dead.  Of the elderly who tested positive, 22.33% have died.  

This week only:  The elderly are 8.29% of those diagnosed, and 62.2% of the dead.