I'm starting this post on July 2, 2020, which is a Thursday. This week the Caronavirus stats have shown that the disease is spreading again. For reference, our lockdown began March 16, and the first restrictions were lifted at the beginning of May, with more lifted by the middle of May. Our paper daily updates charts that show the number of diagnosed cases, the number of deaths and the number of cases/deaths by age group.
I've never considered the gross number of cases to be anywhere near accurate, and I don't think you can compare a 1000 case day this week to a 1000 case day in April, as in April you had to meet all sorts of qualifications in order to even test; whereas today they test anyone who requests it--the worried well, the exposed, and those sick with whatever. However, I've found the proportions of people in each age group to be interesting and I consider the death statistics to be reasonably accurate, as the definition of death hasn't changed. I also consider the hospitalization numbers to be reasonably accurate. While I've heard that there are people who have gone to the hospital for elective procedures who are given a Covid test and found to be in the hospital with Covid but not because of it, who are counted in the daily hospitalization stats, I question how many people like that there are.
From a high in April, our hospitalization numbers decreased steadily through June 13, when they reach 532. Since then they have trended upward, and are now at 840, a number not seen since May 23.
If you read my other posts, you'll see that I've been tracking the overall percent of people by each age group who have been diagnosed and who have died. Here is another one. Today I took just today's numbers and looked at them. Today, 1383 new cases were diagnosed, and 17 people died. Broken down by age group:
Under 18: 147 cases, or 10.6% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
20's: 411 cases, or 29.7% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
30's: 239 cases, or 29.7% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
40's: 198 cases, or 14.3% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
50's: 172 cases, or 12.4 % of those diagnosed. 1 death (7.6% of deaths)
60's: 113 cases, or 8.1% of those diagnosed. 5 deaths (38.4% of deaths)
70 and up: 103 cases or 7.4% of those diagnosed. 7 deaths (53.84% of deaths).
I did the same analysis of cases from July 2 to July 6: (I didn't finish writing the post the day I started it)
Under 18: 523 cases or 10.97% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
20's: 1557 cases, or 32.66% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
30's: 837 cases or 17.56% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
40's: 679 cases or 14.2% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
50's: 570 cases or 11.95% of those diagnosed. 3 deaths (7.3% of deaths)
60's: 398 cases or 8.3% of those diagnosed. 9 deaths (21.95% of deaths)
70's and up: 272 case or 5.7% of those diagnosed. 29 deaths ( 70.73% of deaths)
When you compare that to the numbers when I started tracking them, the difference is remarkable. My guess is that the more at-risk people believe themselves to be, the more they are trying to avoid catching the disease. Kids right now are out and about more than they were prior to the beginning of June. Some are in camp. The other thing is that kids have parents in the age group that is showing the most cases. Chances are, if one person in the house gets it, so do the others.
I'm not a healthcare professional and my last science class was freshman biology for non-science majors 35 years ago, so my expertise in interpreting this data is limited to say the least.
Monday, July 06, 2020
Thursday, July 02, 2020
Book Review: The Sky Beneath My Feet
![The Sky Beneath My Feet by [Lisa Samson]](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51+eV1izKHL.jpg)
About the Book
Beth's husband won't be joining the family on vacation at the beach this year. He's not even joining them in the house. Instead, Rick has holed up alone in the backyard shed. Nobody knows exactly what he's up to. Maybe he's immersing himself in prayer. Maybe he's lost his mind. Maybe he's even the modern-day prophet or the saint the neighborhood artist imagines him to be. But while "St. Rick" waits for an epiphany, Beth will have to figure out what to do with herself and their teenage sons, possibly for the rest of her life.What happens next is both uproarious and bittersweet: a peace march turns violent, her son is caught with drugs, and she embarks on an ambitious road trip that turns into something nearly surreal. Will Beth rediscover the idealistic woman she used to be, once upon a time? Can her marriage survive Rick's backyard vigil? Will anything ever be the same? And should it be?
Truthful, comic, heartbreaking, and magical in the very best sense of the word, The Sky Beneath My Feet gently tears the veil off our egos and expectations to reveal the throbbing, redemptive, and achingly beautiful life beyond and within us.
My Comments
Lisa Samson is one of my favorite writers. She is one of the rare ones who can touch me with her language and use of words as much as with her story.
I've heard it said that a measure of a good story is that if it can speak to you about today even if the author had no idea about today when it was written. Well, if you are reading this at some time other than July, 2020, let me tell you, today--this time in history--is anything but ordinary. The country has been shut down (at least to some degree) for three months to contain Covid-19. Lots of people, including my son, my daughter and her boyfriend, have been laid off from what were considered stable jobs. Everyone is being encouraged to stay home, or, if they have to go out, to wear a mask. If that wasn't bad enough, there have been several seemingly unprovoked killings of African-American men by police officers so "Black Lives Matter" is the mantra of the day and demonstrations and riots have been happening for weeks now. No, things aren't normal.
Beth is a minister's wife. Her husband works as the "men's pastor" at a mega church. It seems that his job is to go out with the guys--to go bowling, to ball games and to other places that men in the church gather, and to talk to them and minister to them and call them to a deeper relationship with God. He wonders if that is what God wants of him. Then an old friend who has moved to another town tries to hire him as pastor of their church. To discern God's will for him, her husband, Rick, decides to do a 30 day silent retreat--in their garage, where he will not interact with family and friends.
Beth is left holding the bag to raise their two sons--and she is trying to figure out what she wants for her life--she had plans to be an attorney before she dropped out of school after getting pregnant with their oldest son. She's been a pastor's wife and a mother but who is she?
During the course of the book Beth meets a group of people who seem to demonstrate for the sake of demonstrating--some truly care about the cause of the day, others just like the process. She also meets a woman who runs a skid row shelter and, in this book written before the phrase was cool, realized she was looking at it through the eyes of white privilege.
The book is very much about Beth and Rick's spiritual journeys as they approach a crossroad of life, so if you don't like religion in books, this probably isn't the one for you. However, the spirituality about which Samson writes is not a feel good sacchrine sweet version.
This was a library book, I reviewed it because I wanted to and I'll give it a B+.
Beth is a minister's wife. Her husband works as the "men's pastor" at a mega church. It seems that his job is to go out with the guys--to go bowling, to ball games and to other places that men in the church gather, and to talk to them and minister to them and call them to a deeper relationship with God. He wonders if that is what God wants of him. Then an old friend who has moved to another town tries to hire him as pastor of their church. To discern God's will for him, her husband, Rick, decides to do a 30 day silent retreat--in their garage, where he will not interact with family and friends.
Beth is left holding the bag to raise their two sons--and she is trying to figure out what she wants for her life--she had plans to be an attorney before she dropped out of school after getting pregnant with their oldest son. She's been a pastor's wife and a mother but who is she?
During the course of the book Beth meets a group of people who seem to demonstrate for the sake of demonstrating--some truly care about the cause of the day, others just like the process. She also meets a woman who runs a skid row shelter and, in this book written before the phrase was cool, realized she was looking at it through the eyes of white privilege.
The book is very much about Beth and Rick's spiritual journeys as they approach a crossroad of life, so if you don't like religion in books, this probably isn't the one for you. However, the spirituality about which Samson writes is not a feel good sacchrine sweet version.
This was a library book, I reviewed it because I wanted to and I'll give it a B+.
Thursday, June 25, 2020
Book Review: How Lulu Lost Her Mind
About the Book:
Lou Ann Hunter’s mother, Patricia, has always had a passionate nature, which explains why she’s been married and divorced five times and spooned enough male patients to be ousted from three elderly care facilities. She also has Alzheimer’s, which is why she wants to spend the rest of her life surrounded by childhood memories at Sutton Hall, her family’s decrepit plantation home in Louisiana.
Lou Ann, a.k.a. Lulu the Love Guru, has built an empire preaching sex, love, and relationship advice to the women of America—mostly by defying the example her mother has set for her. But with Patricia suddenly in need of a fulltime caretaker, Lou Ann reluctantly agrees to step out of the spotlight and indulge her mother’s wishes, even if it means trading in her Louboutins and Chanel N°5 for boots and mosquito repellent.
Upon her arrival at Sutton Hall, Lou Ann discovers that very little functions at it should—least of all Patricia’s mind. And as she adjusts to this new and inevitably temporary dynamic with the help of a local handyman and a live-in nurse, she is forced to confront the reality that neither her nor her mother’s future is going according to plan.
Heartrending at times and laugh-out-loud funny at others, How Lulu Lost Her Mind is the book for everyone and their mother. Fans of Emily Giffin, Kristan Higgins, and Jill Shalvis won’t be able to forget it.
My Comments:
I'm writing this review on April 15, which just happens to be the six-year anniversary of my Dad's death. During his last eighteen months I visited almost weekly, taking him to Mass on Saturday night and then fixing supper for him. I started that routine when we realized it was no longer safe to leave him alone for long stretches of time. We had hired help during the week, one brother lived next door, and another took the Sunday shift. I live an hour and a half away so those few hours a week cost me most of my Saturday afternoon and evening, and during those eighteen months I only missed a few weeks. Looking back on it, I can say those months were hard, but worth it. I had to adjust my life, but I didn't have to make wholesale changes to it.
Lou Ann is a writer, blogger, speaker--an expert on relationships, or at least she plays one on-line. For all her expertise she has never found Mr. Right. Her mother, on the other hand, has always found Mr. Right for now and is still looking, despite her Alzheimer's, which, as noted above, gets her kicked out of her nursing home. Her mother wants to go home to Louisiana, and Lou Ann has enough money to make that dream come true, so they pack up their stuff and move to the old home place.
My Dad never became hard to deal with, and kept his mental faculties until the end. Patricia, Lou Ann's mother, wasn't so lucky. She could be mean and, of course, she had dementia. As they went through family treasures Lou Ann learns about relatives she never met. She meets neighborhood people who are unlike those she chose to be with in her "real" life. Yes, one is a man.
The book is set in southeast Louisiana, which is where I live. While there were things that sounded familiar like Lakeside Mall and chicory coffee, the plantation is outside a small town where people speak with a Cajun accent, and honestly there aren't many (any) of those with easy access to Lakeside Mall.
I enjoyed the book and there was one serious plot thread--Patricia wanted Lou Ann to promise to put her out of her misery when things got too far along. Lou Ann didn't fee right about doing that, but toward the end of the book, Lou Ann made a decision about a similar issue which turned out not to be important, but which could have been.
Actually the ending was pretty much the only part of the book that I didn't like. For some reason it just seemed sudden, almost like the allotted number of pages had been filled and it was time to wrap things up. But, maybe that's the way life is--we don't usually get to go out at what we consider to be the perfect time on the plot arc.
I'd like to thank the publisher for providing a review copy via NetGalley. Grade: B.
Tuesday, June 23, 2020
Covid Stats Updated Again
I've been updating these stats weekly, thought I'd share again.
6/7 Update: Kids now make up 3% of the diagnosed cases and 0.07% of the deaths. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.15% have died. Now that summer day camps have started it will be interesting to see if kids' share of the cases increases. Schools closed the middle of March.
6/15 Update: Kids are now 3.59% of the diagnosed and 0.06% of the dead. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.11% have died.
6/22: Kids are now 4.3% of the diagnosed and 0.09% of the dead. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.13% have died. Kids are out and about, some are in camp and families aren't social distancing as much, at least that's my guess about these numbers.
6/28: Kids are now 5.1% of diagnosed cases and 0.09% of the dead. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.1% have died.
6/22: 16.03% of positives. 3.62% of deaths. Of the diagnosed, 1.35% have died.
6/28: 15.71% of positives; 3.59% of the deaths. Of the diagnosed, 1.25% have died.
Age 0-19:
Children make up 25% of the population but only 1.3% of those who have tested positive. They make up less than 1% of the dead. Of those 18 and under who tested positive, 0.2% died.
5/25 Update: Another child died, which increased kids' % of total cases to 2%. Kids make up 0.07% of the dead and of the diagnosed kids 0.24% died.
5/25 Update: Another child died, which increased kids' % of total cases to 2%. Kids make up 0.07% of the dead and of the diagnosed kids 0.24% died.
6/7 Update: Kids now make up 3% of the diagnosed cases and 0.07% of the deaths. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.15% have died. Now that summer day camps have started it will be interesting to see if kids' share of the cases increases. Schools closed the middle of March.
6/15 Update: Kids are now 3.59% of the diagnosed and 0.06% of the dead. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.11% have died.
6/22: Kids are now 4.3% of the diagnosed and 0.09% of the dead. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.13% have died. Kids are out and about, some are in camp and families aren't social distancing as much, at least that's my guess about these numbers.
6/28: Kids are now 5.1% of diagnosed cases and 0.09% of the dead. Of the diagnosed kids, 0.1% have died.
Age 20-29:
People age 20-29 make up 14% of the population but only 11.6% of those who have tested positive. Only 0.3% of the dead were in their 20's. Of those who tested positive, 0.2% died.
5/25 Update: Now those in their 20's make up 14% of positive test and 0.34% of the dead. 0.17% of the diagnosed died.
6/7 Update: 14.5% of diagnosed cases are in 20-somethings, but only 0.35% of the deaths. Of those diagnosed, 0.16% have died. This is another age group that I wonder if will gain more cases, as they appear to the the main ones at the demonstrations this week.
6/15 Update: 15.1% of diagnosed cases, 0.37% of deaths. Of the diagnosed, 0.15% have died.
6/22: 16.82% of the diagnosed cases, 0.33% of the deaths. Of the diagnosed, 0.11% have died.
This is the first week that the group with the overall largest number of cases hasn't been the 50's. I'm guessing there are three main reasons: 1) This is the age group mostly likely to be unemployed. During the lockdown, they stayed home, but now that things are opening up again, they want to go out--and this has been the main group at demonstrations. 2) This is the age group most likely to have customer service jobs, so more apt to be exposed and 3) This is the group least likely to get seriously ill, so back when tests were hard to get, they didn't test. Now that everyone is encouraged to test if there is the slightest possibility it is positive, more of them are testing.
6/28: 18.6% of diagnosed cases, 0.35% of the dead. Of the diagnosed, 0.1% have died.
5/25 Update: Now those in their 20's make up 14% of positive test and 0.34% of the dead. 0.17% of the diagnosed died.
6/7 Update: 14.5% of diagnosed cases are in 20-somethings, but only 0.35% of the deaths. Of those diagnosed, 0.16% have died. This is another age group that I wonder if will gain more cases, as they appear to the the main ones at the demonstrations this week.
6/15 Update: 15.1% of diagnosed cases, 0.37% of deaths. Of the diagnosed, 0.15% have died.
6/22: 16.82% of the diagnosed cases, 0.33% of the deaths. Of the diagnosed, 0.11% have died.
This is the first week that the group with the overall largest number of cases hasn't been the 50's. I'm guessing there are three main reasons: 1) This is the age group mostly likely to be unemployed. During the lockdown, they stayed home, but now that things are opening up again, they want to go out--and this has been the main group at demonstrations. 2) This is the age group most likely to have customer service jobs, so more apt to be exposed and 3) This is the group least likely to get seriously ill, so back when tests were hard to get, they didn't test. Now that everyone is encouraged to test if there is the slightest possibility it is positive, more of them are testing.
6/28: 18.6% of diagnosed cases, 0.35% of the dead. Of the diagnosed, 0.1% have died.
Age 30-39:
13.3% of the population is in their 30's, but they comprise 15.8% of those who have tested positive. Only 1.8% of the dead were in their 30's. Of those who tested positive, 0.7% died.
5/25 Update: 17.2% of positive tests were to people in their 30's. 1.75% of the dead were in their 30's and of those who tested positive, 0.76% died.
6/7/20 Update: 16.07% of diagnosed cases have been to those in their 30's. 1.73% of the dead were in their 30's and of those who tested positive, 0.71% have died.
6/15: 16.1% of diagnosed cases; 1.68% of dead. Of those who were positive, 0.65% have died.
6/22: 16.26% of diagnosed cases; 2.64% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 0.64% died.
6/28: 16.19% of cases; 1.78% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 0.60% died.
5/25 Update: 17.2% of positive tests were to people in their 30's. 1.75% of the dead were in their 30's and of those who tested positive, 0.76% died.
6/7/20 Update: 16.07% of diagnosed cases have been to those in their 30's. 1.73% of the dead were in their 30's and of those who tested positive, 0.71% have died.
6/15: 16.1% of diagnosed cases; 1.68% of dead. Of those who were positive, 0.65% have died.
6/22: 16.26% of diagnosed cases; 2.64% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 0.64% died.
6/28: 16.19% of cases; 1.78% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 0.60% died.
Age 40-49:
Though people in their 40's make up 12.38% of the population, they comprise 17% of those who tested positive and 3.8 % of the dead. Of 40-somethings who tested positive, 1.5% died.
5/25 Update: 18.13% of positives were to 40-somethings. 3.7% of the dead were in their forties and of those who tested positive, 1.54% died.
6/7 Update: 16.48% of people testing positive were in their 40's, but only 3.68% of the dead. Of those who tested positive, 1.47% have died.
6/15: 16.4% of positives; 3.64% of deaths. Of those diagnosed, 1.38% have died.
5/25 Update: 18.13% of positives were to 40-somethings. 3.7% of the dead were in their forties and of those who tested positive, 1.54% died.
6/7 Update: 16.48% of people testing positive were in their 40's, but only 3.68% of the dead. Of those who tested positive, 1.47% have died.
6/15: 16.4% of positives; 3.64% of deaths. Of those diagnosed, 1.38% have died.
6/22: 16.03% of positives. 3.62% of deaths. Of the diagnosed, 1.35% have died.
6/28: 15.71% of positives; 3.59% of the deaths. Of the diagnosed, 1.25% have died.
Age 50-59:
Those in their 50's are 13.1% of population but 19% of those who tested positive. They make up 8.6% of the dead and of those who tested positive, 3% died.
5/25 Update: 20.1% of positive tests were to folks in their 50's. 8.95%of the dead were that age. 3.3% of the people who tested positive died.
6/7 Update: 17.98 percent of positive tests were to people in their 50's, as were 8.67% of the deaths. Of the people who tested positive in this age group, 3.18% have died.
6/15: 17.6% of positive tests; 8.74% of deaths. 3.08% of diagnosed have died.
6/22: 16.54% of positive tests; 8.7% of the deaths. 3.17% of the diagnosed have died.
6/28: 15.94% of positive tests; 8.71% of deaths. 2.99% of the diagnosed have died.
5/25 Update: 20.1% of positive tests were to folks in their 50's. 8.95%of the dead were that age. 3.3% of the people who tested positive died.
6/7 Update: 17.98 percent of positive tests were to people in their 50's, as were 8.67% of the deaths. Of the people who tested positive in this age group, 3.18% have died.
6/15: 17.6% of positive tests; 8.74% of deaths. 3.08% of diagnosed have died.
6/22: 16.54% of positive tests; 8.7% of the deaths. 3.17% of the diagnosed have died.
6/28: 15.94% of positive tests; 8.71% of deaths. 2.99% of the diagnosed have died.
Age 60-69:
While those age 60-69 make up 11.3% of population they make up 16.6 % of those who tested positive and 18.2% of the dead. Of those who tested positive, 7.4% died.
5/25 Update: 16.8% of those who tested positive were in their 60's, and 18.35% of the dead. 8.16% of those who tested positive died.
6/7 Update: 14.85% of cases were people in their 60's, and 18.08% of the dead. 8.03% of those who tested positive died.
6/15: 14.43% of positive tests; 17.96% of dead. Of those who were positive, 7.75% died.
6/22: 13.75% of positive tests. 17.7% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 7.72% have died.
6/28: 13.11% of positive tests. 17.66% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 7.39% have died.
5/25 Update: 16.8% of those who tested positive were in their 60's, and 18.35% of the dead. 8.16% of those who tested positive died.
6/7 Update: 14.85% of cases were people in their 60's, and 18.08% of the dead. 8.03% of those who tested positive died.
6/15: 14.43% of positive tests; 17.96% of dead. Of those who were positive, 7.75% died.
6/22: 13.75% of positive tests. 17.7% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 7.72% have died.
6/28: 13.11% of positive tests. 17.66% of the dead. Of those who were positive, 7.39% have died.
Age 70+
Those aged 70+ are 11% of the population but 25% of those who tested positive. and 68 % of the dead have been elderly and of those in this age group who tested positive, 25% died.
5/25 Update: 19.1% of those who have tested positive are older than 70. 66.77 of the dead are. 26.2% of those diagnosed died.
6/7 update: 17.08 % of positive tests were to the elderly, and they comprise 67.39% of the dead. 26.03% of those who tested positive have died.
6/15 16.58% of positive tests; 67.34% of deaths. 25.31% of infected died.
6/22 15.75% of positive tests; 67.60% of the deaths. 25.66% of the infected died.
6/28 14.88% of positive tests. 67.79% of the deaths. 24.99% of the infected died.
What really surprises me is how that last number on each row--the percent of infected people who die really hasn't moved. I would think that with more easily available testing and more negative tests, that people who were less ill would be diagnosed and the number of deaths per diagnosis would go down. I would also hope they are getting better at treating it. Remdesivir has been approved since May 1, almost two months and while I know it was shown to reduce hospitalization time, not death, I hoped that with wider use, they'd find it reduced deaths too. The news about dexamethasone is about a week old now. Maybe that number will start to move.
5/25 Update: 19.1% of those who have tested positive are older than 70. 66.77 of the dead are. 26.2% of those diagnosed died.
6/7 update: 17.08 % of positive tests were to the elderly, and they comprise 67.39% of the dead. 26.03% of those who tested positive have died.
6/15 16.58% of positive tests; 67.34% of deaths. 25.31% of infected died.
6/22 15.75% of positive tests; 67.60% of the deaths. 25.66% of the infected died.
6/28 14.88% of positive tests. 67.79% of the deaths. 24.99% of the infected died.
What really surprises me is how that last number on each row--the percent of infected people who die really hasn't moved. I would think that with more easily available testing and more negative tests, that people who were less ill would be diagnosed and the number of deaths per diagnosis would go down. I would also hope they are getting better at treating it. Remdesivir has been approved since May 1, almost two months and while I know it was shown to reduce hospitalization time, not death, I hoped that with wider use, they'd find it reduced deaths too. The news about dexamethasone is about a week old now. Maybe that number will start to move.
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