More on Covid--the Times Have Changed

I'm starting this post on July 2, 2020, which is a Thursday.  This week the Caronavirus stats have shown that the disease is spreading again.  For reference, our lockdown began March 16, and the first restrictions were lifted at the beginning of May, with more lifted by the middle of May.   Our paper daily updates charts that show the number of diagnosed cases, the number of deaths and the number of cases/deaths by age group.

I've never considered the gross number of cases to be anywhere near accurate, and I don't think you can compare a 1000 case day this week to a 1000 case day in April, as in April you had to meet all sorts of qualifications in order to even test; whereas today they test anyone who requests it--the worried well, the exposed, and those sick with whatever.  However, I've found the proportions of people in each age group to be interesting and I consider the death statistics to be reasonably accurate, as the definition of death hasn't changed. I also consider the hospitalization numbers to be reasonably accurate. While I've heard that there are people who have gone to the hospital for elective procedures who are given a Covid test and found to be in the hospital with Covid but not because of it, who are counted in the daily hospitalization stats, I question how many people like that there are.

From a high in April, our hospitalization numbers decreased steadily through June 13, when they reach 532.  Since then they have trended upward, and are now at 840, a number not seen since May 23.

If you read my other posts, you'll see that I've been tracking the overall percent of people by each age group who have been diagnosed and who have died.  Here is another one.  Today I took just today's numbers and looked at them. Today, 1383 new cases were diagnosed, and 17 people died.  Broken down by age group:

Under 18:  147 cases, or 10.6% of those diagnosed.  No deaths.
20's:  411 cases, or 29.7% of those diagnosed.  No deaths.
30's:  239 cases, or 29.7% of those diagnosed.  No deaths.
40's:  198 cases, or 14.3% of those diagnosed.  No deaths.
50's:  172 cases, or 12.4 %  of those diagnosed.  1 death (7.6% of deaths)
60's:  113 cases, or 8.1% of those diagnosed.  5 deaths (38.4% of deaths)
70 and up:  103 cases or 7.4% of those diagnosed. 7 deaths (53.84% of deaths).

I did the same analysis of cases from July 2 to July 6: (I didn't finish writing the post the day I started it)
Under 18:  523 cases or 10.97% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
20's:  1557 cases, or 32.66% of those diagnosed. No deaths.
30's:  837 cases or 17.56% of those diagnosed.  No deaths.
40's:  679 cases or 14.2% of those diagnosed.  No deaths.
50's:  570 cases or 11.95% of those diagnosed.  3 deaths (7.3% of deaths)
60's:  398 cases or 8.3% of those diagnosed.  9 deaths (21.95% of deaths)
70's and up:  272 case or 5.7% of those diagnosed.  29 deaths ( 70.73% of deaths)

When you compare that to the numbers when I started tracking them, the difference is remarkable. My guess is that the more at-risk people believe themselves to be, the more they are trying to avoid catching the disease.  Kids right now are out and about more than they were prior to the beginning of June. Some are in camp.  The other thing is that kids have parents in the age group that is showing the most cases.  Chances are, if one person in the house gets it, so do the others. 

I'm not a healthcare professional and my last science class was freshman biology for non-science majors 35 years ago, so my expertise in interpreting this data is limited to say the least.